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Oct. 20th, 2004 01:50 pmI follow electoral-vote.com, which maintains a map of the polling status of the electoral college, along with a daily column about polling and voting issues.
For a while the maintainer had also been keeping an electoral map as projected to Nov. 2nd using regression lines. He scrapped it when he came to the conclusion that successive polls weren't converging.
Now he's started a different Nov. 2nd projection map with new methodology: it assumes that the candidates get on Nov. 2nd what they're polling now, that undecideds break 2:1 in favor of Kerry (which has much historical basis), that Nader gets 1% where he's on the ballot, and all other independents get a collective 1%.
Kerry is currently winning on this map 311-227, which includes winning both Ohio and Florida 50%-49%. On this map Kerry could afford to lose either Florida or Ohio, but not both.
NB: The projection map will probably fluctuate a lot, as there's 10 states (comprising 127 EVs) that are statistical ties right now. Of the states that aren't statistical ties, Kerry's still winning 228-182.
For a while the maintainer had also been keeping an electoral map as projected to Nov. 2nd using regression lines. He scrapped it when he came to the conclusion that successive polls weren't converging.
Now he's started a different Nov. 2nd projection map with new methodology: it assumes that the candidates get on Nov. 2nd what they're polling now, that undecideds break 2:1 in favor of Kerry (which has much historical basis), that Nader gets 1% where he's on the ballot, and all other independents get a collective 1%.
Kerry is currently winning on this map 311-227, which includes winning both Ohio and Florida 50%-49%. On this map Kerry could afford to lose either Florida or Ohio, but not both.
NB: The projection map will probably fluctuate a lot, as there's 10 states (comprising 127 EVs) that are statistical ties right now. Of the states that aren't statistical ties, Kerry's still winning 228-182.
