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Oct. 20th, 2004 01:50 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
mattlistenerI follow electoral-vote.com, which maintains a map of the polling status of the electoral college, along with a daily column about polling and voting issues.
For a while the maintainer had also been keeping an electoral map as projected to Nov. 2nd using regression lines. He scrapped it when he came to the conclusion that successive polls weren't converging.
Now he's started a different Nov. 2nd projection map with new methodology: it assumes that the candidates get on Nov. 2nd what they're polling now, that undecideds break 2:1 in favor of Kerry (which has much historical basis), that Nader gets 1% where he's on the ballot, and all other independents get a collective 1%.
Kerry is currently winning on this map 311-227, which includes winning both Ohio and Florida 50%-49%. On this map Kerry could afford to lose either Florida or Ohio, but not both.
NB: The projection map will probably fluctuate a lot, as there's 10 states (comprising 127 EVs) that are statistical ties right now. Of the states that aren't statistical ties, Kerry's still winning 228-182.
For a while the maintainer had also been keeping an electoral map as projected to Nov. 2nd using regression lines. He scrapped it when he came to the conclusion that successive polls weren't converging.
Now he's started a different Nov. 2nd projection map with new methodology: it assumes that the candidates get on Nov. 2nd what they're polling now, that undecideds break 2:1 in favor of Kerry (which has much historical basis), that Nader gets 1% where he's on the ballot, and all other independents get a collective 1%.
Kerry is currently winning on this map 311-227, which includes winning both Ohio and Florida 50%-49%. On this map Kerry could afford to lose either Florida or Ohio, but not both.
NB: The projection map will probably fluctuate a lot, as there's 10 states (comprising 127 EVs) that are statistical ties right now. Of the states that aren't statistical ties, Kerry's still winning 228-182.
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no subject
Date: 2004-10-20 12:18 pm (UTC)>I wonder if this assumes that everyone who says they've decided
>on Kerry, or on Bush, or is undecided, is going to vote at all.
The site uses all "recent" "major" polls as its data (with both those terms carefully defined). Some pollsters used "registered voters", some use "likely voters" -- using a variety of proprietary black boxes to determine whether someone is a likely voter.
Some pollsters report their data for both "likely" and "registered" voters. When there's a choice, the site maintainer uses the data for "registered", as the methodologies used to determine who's a "likely" voter are widely thought to be unreliable for this election.
no subject
Date: 2004-10-20 02:17 pm (UTC)http://unfutz.blogspot.com/2004/10/electoral-college-survey-1018.html
has a weekly survey of all the state-by-state poll aggregators.
Wow.
no subject
Date: 2004-10-20 02:18 pm (UTC)